- February 17, 2009:
Guy Monson, Chairman of the Investment Policy Committee of the Sarasin Group and CIO of Sarasin & Partners LLP, UK identified some encouraging signals while speaking at the round table sessions organized by Bank Sarasin-Alpen (ME) for key clients in Doha, Dubai and Muscat on 15, 16 and 17th February, 2009 respectively. Sarasin-Alpen’s Round Table Sessions, are conducted every quarter with Guy Monson and Burkhard Varnholt, the Chief Investment Officer of Bank Sarasin & Co. Ltd., Switzerland as alternating speakers. The topic of the recent sessions was “Global Strategy and Investment Outlook 2009”.Its main purpose was to talk to clients about the current economic conditions and investment options.
Guy started the session on a positive note mentioning that the smoke is starting to clear from the inferno fed by the global liquidity crisis. Sarasin believes action by the US Federal Reserve and other governments – including efforts to impact the availability of credit directly – will mitigate the risk and that the promise of sustained intervention is already having stabilizing effects. While deflation will also remain a risk, Sarasin does not expect it to become a reality.
Guy Monson, Chairman of the Investment Policy Committee of the Sarasin Group
“Fires are still burning across the world’s economies, and many of them will burn for sometime. But in some areas, of which many are incorporatecd into our themes ‘Security of Supply’ and the ‘Strong Get Stronger’, the smoke is beginning to clear. Opportunities for investors are emerging.”
The Sarasin GCC Equity Opportunities Fund(USD)
Guy also spoke about the recent launch of the Sarasin GCC Equity Opportunities fund by Sarasin-Alpen & Partners Limited Agreeing that there could not be a better time to launch such a fund, Guy highlighted some of its unique features which made it particularly suitable for clients in the region.
Sarasin’s Investment Strategy targets emerging opportunities
Sarasin’s investment strategy favours shortening duration on fixed interest holdings, while continuing to diversify into Government/Hybrid bank and related agency issues. Such structures carry similar risks to Treasuries in the short-term, but offer more attractive yields.
As the recent scramble for Dollars comes to an end, coupled with deteriorating US industrial production, interest rates close to 0% and the promise of further direct Federal Reserve intervention in the bond markets, Sarasin is starting to hedge material Dollar positions in Euro and Yen portfolios.
Regionally, Sarasin favours Japanese equities in the longer term and in the UK more immediately because of the extraordinary currency declines. The Japanese economy has not yet been subject to the same sort of excesses as elsewhere, while the close to 65% of UK corporate revenues coming from overseas should generate extraordinary translational windfalls, with Sterling falling faster and more aggressively than any other major currency.
The Quarterly Strategy Outlook newsletter is co-authored by Guy Monson and Burkhard Varnholt. If you would like to receive a copy each quarter, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org or visit www.sarasin.com.